Courting the Lioness: When the Queen Loses Her Throne: Kadaga, NRM, and the Temptation of NUP

Politics, like chess, is not merely about the next move but about anticipating ten moves ahead. The recent loss of Rt. Hon. Rebecca Kadaga on the NRM stage is not just a personal setback; it is a tremor that shakes Busoga, destabilizes gender symbolism in Ugandan politics, and opens doors for both reconciliation and betrayal.

The Inside Move: Courting the Lioness

Power abhors a vacuum, and when one pillar in a ruling structure weakens, vultures and visionaries alike hover. Kadaga, a woman who has stood in the corridors of power for decades, carries not just personal ambition but the collective identity of Busoga, women in leadership, and the loyal backbenchers she has quietly groomed.

It is naïve to think that NUP, Uganda’s new altar of opposition passion, would not court her. Bobi Wine knows too well that symbolism is the oxygen of politics. And what could be more symbolic than the “Lioness of Busoga,” once Museveni’s jewel, crossing the Nile into the camp of resistance?

The Temptation of Defection

For Kadaga, the temptation is double-edged. On one hand, she could remain in NRM, a party that used her strength until it no longer suited its balance of power—a pattern Museveni has mastered. On the other hand, defecting to NUP would be an act of resurrection, a rebirth that might immortalize her as the matriarch who chose people over patronage.

But defecting is never simply walking across the road—it is crossing a river of suspicion, betrayal, and risk. Would NUP truly embrace her as a leader, or would they keep her as a trophy to weaken NRM? Would the young radicals accept her past compromises, or would they remind her that she once carried the ruling party’s flag?

Museveni’s Calculus

One cannot underestimate the counter-strategy of the President. Museveni plays a long game. He knows the sting of betrayal better than most, and he often absorbs it by drawing defectors back with appointments, privileges, or by politically neutralizing them. He might offer Kadaga a seat in the regional integration agenda, a continental role, or some golden rope to keep her tied to the establishment.

The Verdict: A Queen at the Crossroads

Kadaga’s loss may well be the beginning of her true test. If she stays with NRM, she risks fading as another loyalist sacrificed on the altar of succession politics. If she moves to NUP, she risks mistrust but could also electrify Ugandan politics with a historic twist.

As Sun Tzu wrote: “In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity.” Kadaga stands at that edge of chaos. Whether she becomes a fallen Queen in a party of kings or a Lioness leading the cubs of resistance will depend not on what NRM or NUP desires, but on her own courage to choose legacy over comfort.