Nigeria recorded a steep decline in exports to the United States in the first nine months of 2025, losing about ₦940.98 billion in export earnings, as imports from the US surged and overturned a trade surplus recorded a year earlier, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).Exports Fall, Imports Surge
An analysis of NBS foreign trade figures for Q1–Q3 2025 compared with the same period in 2024 shows that Nigeria’s exports to the US fell to ₦3.65 trillion from ₦4.59 trillion, representing a 20.5 per cent decline. Over the same period, imports from the US jumped sharply to ₦6.80 trillion from ₦3.01 trillion—an increase of 125.5 per cent.
As a result, Nigeria posted a trade deficit of approximately ₦3.15 trillion with the US in the first nine months of 2025, reversing a ₦1.57 trillion surplus recorded during the corresponding period of 2024.
Impact of New US Tariffs
The deterioration in trade coincided with Washington’s implementation of a new “reciprocal” tariff regime under former US President Donald Trump. The executive order, issued in late July 2025 and effective from August 7, imposed higher duties on a broad range of non-oil imports.
Although crude oil exports were largely exempted, the tariffs applied directly to many of Nigeria’s non-oil exports, creating uncertainty for US buyers and dampening demand both ahead of and after the policy took effect.
Trend Reversal from 2024
In 2024, Nigeria’s exports to the US showed consistent quarterly growth—rising from ₦1.31 trillion in Q1 to ₦1.59 trillion in Q2 and ₦1.69 trillion in Q3. Imports during that period remained relatively contained, resulting in quarterly trade surpluses and a cumulative nine-month surplus of ₦1.57 trillion.
That pattern changed markedly in 2025. Exports opened at ₦1.54 trillion in Q1 but declined to ₦1.36 trillion in Q2 and plunged to ₦743.63 billion in Q3. Imports moved in the opposite direction, rising from ₦1.42 trillion in Q1 to ₦2.16 trillion in Q2 and surging further to ₦3.22 trillion in Q3.
Quarter-on-quarter data shows exports fell by 11.9 per cent between Q1 and Q2 2025 and collapsed by 45.3 per cent between Q2 and Q3. Imports rose by 51.8 per cent between Q1 and Q2 and by another 49.1 per cent between Q2 and Q3, rapidly widening the trade gap.
Year-on-Year Performance
On a year-on-year basis, exports initially rose by 17.7 per cent in Q1 2025 compared with Q1 2024, but declined thereafter—falling by 14.3 per cent in Q2 and plunging by 56.0 per cent in Q3. Imports increased across all quarters, growing by 40.9 per cent in Q1, 123.5 per cent in Q2, and 209.4 per cent in Q3.
The sharp contraction in export earnings explains why the US dropped out of Nigeria’s top five export destinations by the second and third quarters of 2025, even as it remained one of Nigeria’s largest sources of imports.
Export Composition
Product-level data indicates that Nigeria’s exports to the US in Q1 2025 were dominated by crude petroleum oils valued at ₦779.38 billion. Other key exports included urea (₦240.17 billion), kerosene-type jet fuel (₦214.30 billion), petroleum gases in gaseous state (₦95.97 billion), and standard-quality cocoa beans (₦58.84 billion).
Broader Implications
Analysts say the figures highlight Nigeria’s continued vulnerability to external policy shifts and underscore the need to diversify export markets and strengthen non-oil competitiveness to cushion the impact of trade disruptions linked to global tariff changes.
Source: Africa Publicity
