The ongoing competition between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) across the Horn of Africa is dominating discussions at this weekend’s African Union Summit, even as most African leaders try to remain neutral, according to diplomats and regional experts.
From Yemen to the Horn
What began as a rivalry in Yemen has now spilled into the Horn of Africa, affecting countries grappling with local conflicts—from Somalia and Sudan to tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, as well as a divided Libya.
The UAE has expanded its footprint in the region through multi-billion-dollar investments, diplomatic engagement, and discreet military support, particularly in Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has taken a lower-profile approach but is reportedly building an alliance with Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar to counter UAE influence.
“Saudi has woken up and realised that they might lose the Red Sea,” a senior African diplomat told Reuters. “They have been sleeping all along while UAE was doing its thing in the Horn.”
Initially focused on strategic maritime zones like the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, the rivalry has now extended inland, influencing conflicts in Somalia, Sudan, and the Sahel.
Local actors caught in the middle
Gulf involvement has forced some regional actors, governments, and armed groups to choose sides. Experts, including Michael Woldemariam of the University of Maryland, note growing unease with the UAE’s assertive strategy, while Saudi efforts are largely pursued through allies and proxies.
The UAE claims its interventions help stabilize states and fight extremism, though UN and Western officials argue that its presence has sometimes fueled conflict and empowered authoritarian leaders. Saudi officials, in turn, see UAE activity in Yemen and the Horn as a national security threat.
Flashpoints in the Horn
• Somalia cut ties with Abu Dhabi after accusing it of influencing Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, signing a defense pact with Qatar in response.
• Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea are escalating, with Eritrea’s leader visiting Saudi Arabia, signaling Riyadh’s backing.
• In Sudan, UAE and Saudi-backed factions support opposing sides: the UAE is linked to the RSF paramilitary, while Saudi-aligned states back the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). Egypt, a Saudi ally, has reportedly deployed drones to strike RSF targets.
• Ethiopia appears to benefit from UAE backing, hosting a base in western Ethiopia where RSF fighters are reportedly trained.
Caution among African leaders
Many African countries are expected to tread carefully to avoid becoming entangled in a broader Gulf power struggle. Analysts warn that while the Horn is one hotspot, other crises—including wars in the Democratic Republic of Congo and extremist activity in the Sahel—still demand attention.
“Do the Saudis and UAE fully grasp the implications?” said Alex Rondos, the EU’s former special representative for the region. “Will the Horn of Africa allow itself to be broken into pieces by these foreign rivalries and their African accomplices?”
The AU summit is thus being held under the shadow of a geopolitical chess game that could reshape alliances and conflicts across the Horn for years to come.
Source: Africa Publicity
