Egypt’s economy is expected to grow by 4.6% in the fiscal year ending June 2026, supported by easing inflation, lower interest rates, and a weaker currency that is boosting exports, according to a Reuters poll released on Monday.
The survey of 16 economists, conducted between October 6 and 20, forecasts further acceleration in GDP growth to 4.9% in 2026/27 and 5.3% in 2027/28.
After slowing to 2.4% in 2023/24, Egypt’s economy began to recover following a March 2024 currency devaluation and interest rate hike tied to an $8 billion IMF support package. The devaluation spurred growth in tourism and remittances, while a $35 billion real estate investment by Abu Dhabi at Ras El Hekma in February 2024 also strengthened the economy.
Recent data from the Central Bank of Egypt show GDP growth rose to 5.0% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, up from 4.8% in the first quarter. Analysts at Capital Economics noted that lower inflation and looser monetary policy are fueling the recovery, saying, “Egypt’s economy is shifting into a higher gear as improved external competitiveness aids exports and the domestic manufacturing sector.”
The poll also predicts a continued decline in inflation—from an average of 12.3% in 2025/26 to 10.2% in 2026/27 and 7.5% in 2027/28—after peaking at a record 38% in September 2023. Annual inflation eased to 11.7% in September 2025, down from 12.0% in August, even as the government raised fuel prices by up to 12.9% to curb subsidies and narrow the budget deficit.
Interest rates are expected to follow a downward path, with the central bank’s overnight lending rate projected to fall from 22.0% to 16.0% by June 2026, 13.0% by June 2027, and 11.25% by June 2028. The Central Bank of Egypt has already reduced its benchmark rate four times this year, totaling a 625-basis-point cut.
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Meanwhile, the Egyptian pound is forecast to weaken gradually to 49.85 per U.S. dollar by June 2026, 52.00 by June 2027, and 54.00 by June 2028, compared with its current rate of 47.50.
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Source:Africa Publicity
