File photo: President Yoweri Museveni and his wife campaigning in Kiruhura back in 2016
A timely situational analysis and policy brief
By Emmanuel Mihiingo Kaija
Executive summary
Uganda in October 2025 stands on the delicate ridge between political excitement and civic anxiety, its streets humming with rallies and its institutions vibrating with tension. As the nation prepares for the 2026 general elections, two seemingly parallel movements define the national mood. The first is the surge of public rallies and campaign promises, with President Yoweri Museveni’s National Resistance Movement (NRM) projecting the familiar rhetoric of stability, infrastructure growth, and economic transformation, while the National Unity Platform (NUP) under Robert Kyagulanyi, also known as Bobi Wine, amplifies calls for accountability, generational renewal, and a peaceful transition of power. The second is the tightening of the state’s grip on dissent through arrests, prosecutions, and digital surveillance. Environmental defenders, journalists, and opposition supporters continue to report harassment, while concerns over cross-border detentions—particularly of Kenyan activists allegedly abducted after attending Ugandan rallies—have drawn regional scrutiny. Public services, especially electricity, remain under strain from vandalism, blackouts, and the expanding needs of an urbanising population. The government’s simultaneous launch of an Ebola vaccine trial and its public-health vigilance signal resilience in some areas even as civic space contracts. Economically, Uganda has regained multilateral confidence, with the World Bank resuming aid following a suspension linked to the Anti-Homosexuality Act. Yet, this regained funding occurs in an atmosphere of international caution, as partners weigh developmental cooperation against human-rights regressions.
Introduction
Uganda’s political rhythm has long been an intricate dance between popular mobilization and coercive control. Since the early 2000s, each electoral cycle has replayed familiar themes—development pledges, patriotic calls for unity, and displays of military presence—often blurring the line between governance and domination. The 2025 pre-election atmosphere follows this pattern, marked by both exuberance and unease. On one side, vibrant political campaigns fill marketplaces, churches, and stadiums, offering visions of prosperity and change. On the other, the apparatus of state power—courts, police, intelligence networks, and digital regulators—has grown more assertive, limiting the air in which opposition parties and activists breathe. Understanding Uganda’s current moment requires reading these dual forces together: the spectacle of democracy coexisting with its quiet suffocation. The paradox lies not in the presence of rallies, but in the invisible boundaries within which they are allowed to exist.
Recent developments
The months leading up to October 2025 have been dense with political activity and institutional turbulence. President Museveni’s regional tours have evolved into de facto campaign rallies, where he presents infrastructure projects and social transformation agendas as proof of his continued relevance and indispensability. His language, heavy with the vocabulary of continuity and national security, seeks to assure citizens that longevity equals stability. Meanwhile, Bobi Wine’s NUP has pursued a strategy of grassroots mobilisation, particularly in youth-dominated urban areas and northern districts. His public pledge to protect Museveni if he peacefully relinquishes power was not only symbolic but tactical—an attempt to present himself as a reformist rather than a revolutionary threat. The street enthusiasm around these events reveals a society politically awake yet uncertain of the real boundaries of freedom.
However, this lively atmosphere has been shadowed by a chain of arrests, prosecutions, and intimidating signals aimed at silencing independent voices. Reports from human-rights monitors indicate detentions of environmental defenders earlier in 2025, and a particularly concerning case emerged when Kenyan activists were reportedly abducted after attending an opposition rally in Uganda. This incident raised alarms about regional cooperation in suppressing dissent, suggesting that repression may no longer stop at the border. Simultaneously, Uganda’s digital space has come under heavier scrutiny. Bloggers, TikTok users, and independent commentators face threats, interrogations, and surveillance, a pattern already familiar in pre-election years. Digital-rights groups such as CIPESA and Access Now have documented cases of intimidation and warned of possible throttling or shutdowns as political tensions rise.
At the judicial level, Uganda’s defiance of court rulings restricting the use of military courts for civilians highlights an ongoing institutional conflict between executive dominance and constitutionalism. The persistence of these courts as tools of political discipline reinforces the perception that the state prefers loyalty to legality. Parallel to this, the country continues to manage pressing socioeconomic realities. The Uganda Electricity Transmission Company has reported increased cases of vandalism and illegal connections, contributing to blackouts and infrastructure losses. Citizens, meanwhile, navigate power shortages that fuel daily frustration. On the public-health front, the government’s initiation of a Sudan-strain Ebola vaccine trial represents an important milestone for regional epidemic preparedness, showing that even amid political contestation, scientific resilience endures. Economically, Uganda’s fortunes have been mixed: after a year of diplomatic isolation following the Anti-Homosexuality Act, the World Bank’s decision to resume funding signals a pragmatic reset in relations, while trade negotiations with Somalia aim to raise bilateral exports above $8 million. Beneath these developments lies the persistent question of how political and economic stability coexist within shrinking civic freedoms.
Analytical assessment — what’s at stake
The first and perhaps most striking pattern is the refinement of Uganda’s pre-election authoritarian playbook. The combination of selective arrests, digital intimidation, and judicial manipulation forms a continuum of control designed to pre-empt potential unrest. Each arrest of a protester, each suspended journalist, and each threatened influencer signals to the wider population that dissent carries cost. This strategy, perfected over decades, relies less on mass violence and more on the quiet efficiency of fear. When repression becomes predictable, its power deepens.
Nevertheless, opposition mobilization remains a potent countercurrent. Bobi Wine’s persistent ability to draw crowds despite surveillance and intimidation reflects both his personal charisma and the deep hunger for political change among the youth. The symbolic act of offering Museveni “protection” in exchange for peaceful transition reframes the narrative: the challenger assuming the posture of guarantor, while the incumbent appears defensive. This psychological inversion may not shift immediate power, but it shapes public imagination and influences how international observers read Uganda’s democratic prospects.
Equally significant is the battle for information control. In the twenty-first century, digital regulation has become the state’s most elastic instrument of power. Uganda’s history of internet shutdowns during protests and elections has set precedent, and current warnings from rights groups suggest similar tactics may return in 2026. When the flow of communication is throttled, opposition coordination collapses, journalism falters, and the population becomes reliant on state narratives. This is not mere censorship; it is the strategic construction of silence.
The regional dimension adds another layer of gravity. The alleged abduction of Kenyan activists after participating in Ugandan rallies signals that repression may be expanding into transnational coordination. If confirmed, this would constitute a troubling precedent for East African civil-society safety, challenging both diplomatic norms and the principles of asylum. The East African Community, already struggling with cross-border trust, cannot afford such violations without eroding its credibility.
Amid these political machinations, social and infrastructural pressures persist. Blackouts, rising living costs, and public-health uncertainties all act as accelerants of public frustration. In fragile political climates, the failure of service delivery often sparks more unrest than the language of politics itself. Uganda’s ability to sustain calm may thus depend less on campaign rhetoric and more on how quickly it stabilizes electricity, inflation, and healthcare.
Recommendations (for journalists, civil society, and international partners)
Independent journalists in Uganda now operate in a digital environment where exposure can be as dangerous as silence. The most practical response is to develop resilient reporting ecosystems capable of surviving censorship. This involves mirroring sensitive content across multiple online platforms, encrypting communications, and coordinating verification processes with regional counterparts. Cross-border collaboration among East African journalists may provide the safety in numbers that national institutions no longer guarantee.
Civil-society organizations, meanwhile, face the task of documenting violations while staying operational under scrutiny. The priority should be collective resilience: forming coalitions that jointly record arrests, trials, and online restrictions, ensuring that no single organization bears the brunt of repression. Regular publication of verifiable situation reports can build both public awareness and international accountability.
For international partners—including donors, multilaterals, and diplomatic missions—2025 offers a test of principled engagement. Financial cooperation must be coupled with human-rights conditionality, ensuring that development aid does not indirectly finance repression. The World Bank’s renewed funding to Uganda provides leverage to embed human-rights benchmarks into project frameworks. Diplomatic engagement should emphasize judicial independence, civic protection, and transparency in electoral preparation, while maintaining support for health, education, and infrastructure programs that directly benefit vulnerable citizens.
Regional institutions, particularly the African Union and the East African Community, should take seriously the allegations of cross-border repression. A coordinated inquiry into the reported abductions would reaffirm the sanctity of borders and the safety of civic actors who move within the region. Silence would normalize impunity.
Methodology and limits
This analysis integrates open-source intelligence, official statements, NGO reports, and journalistic investigations published between January and October 2025. Special emphasis is placed on developments from August to October, when political temperatures and public tensions intensified. While every effort has been made to corroborate facts through multiple sources, the opacity of security operations and judicial proceedings limits absolute verification. For that reason, claims of abduction, torture, or detention are treated as credible but open to further confirmation through field-based research. The analysis refrains from speculation beyond documented events. No proprietary datasets or classified sources were accessed; the work relies entirely on verifiable public information curated from international and Ugandan outlets.
Conclusion
Uganda’s political crossroads in late 2025 captures a paradox familiar across Africa: the promise of democratic choice entangled with the persistence of authoritarian control. The country’s rallies, campaign songs, and public promises reflect genuine civic energy, yet the backdrop of arrests, censorship, and institutional defiance reveals a government unwilling to fully share power. The next months leading to the 2026 elections will therefore test not only Uganda’s constitutional fabric but also its social patience. Whether the process unfolds peacefully or collapses into coercion will depend on three fragile balances—the tolerance of the state, the discipline of the opposition, and the vigilance of the international community. As history often shows, nations do not fracture suddenly; they erode in increments of silence. The task now is to ensure that truth and accountability are not among the casualties.
References
The Guardian. “Kenyan activists abducted after joining opposition rally in Uganda.” October 2025.
Official Government of Uganda, Office of the President. “President Museveni rallies Lango; promises wealth creation, infrastructure, and social transformation.” Press Release, October 2025.
Daily Monitor (Kampala). “Bobi to Museveni: I’ll protect you if you hand over power peacefully.” 7 October 2025.
Nile Post. “Inside Uganda’s High-Stakes Battle Against Blackouts, Vandalism and Soaring Demand.” 7 October 2025.
Reuters. “Ugandan leader pledges to continue using military courts despite ban.” February 2025.
Reuters. “Uganda starts clinical trial of vaccine for Sudan strain of Ebola.” February 2025.
Reuters. “World Bank to resume Uganda funding after halt over anti-LGBT law.” June 2025.
Crisis Group. CrisisWatch: September Trends and October Alerts 2025. October 2025.
CIVICUS Monitor. “Repression of environmental defenders and crackdown on opposition and press intensifies.” April 2025.
World Organisation Against Torture (OMCT). “Arbitrary arrest and detention of 11 Ugandan environmental rights defenders.” June 2025.
Collaboration on International ICT Policy in East and Southern Africa (CIPESA). “Uganda steps up pressure on social media critics ahead of 2026 polls.” April 2025.
Access Now. “2025 Elections and Internet Shutdowns Watch.” January 2025.
The Guardian. “Internet shutdowns at record high in Africa as access weaponised.” March 2025.
ChimpReports. “Uganda, Somalia eye doubling trade to over $8 million.” 7 October 2025.
Morning Star News. “Ugandan activists arrested as political climate tightens.” October 2025.
