Analysts say Somalia’s al-Shabaab militant group remains far from defeated despite recent territorial losses, following a bold attack on Mogadishu’s main prison on Saturday that left seven militants dead.
According to security sources, the raid targeted the Godka Jilicow detention facility, a high-security prison in the heart of the Somali capital where several convicted al-Shabaab members are held. The attackers, reportedly disguised as government soldiers and using armored vehicles, breached multiple security layers through deception before engaging in a fierce gunfight with guards.
The assault, which aimed to free imprisoned militants, highlights al-Shabaab’s continued ability to strike even within heavily fortified areas close to the presidential palace. While the government has not officially commented on al-Shabaab’s claims that the raid caused heavy casualties among security forces, the incident has renewed concerns about the security of key installations in Mogadishu.
Godka Jilicow is under the control of the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA), whose reputation is now under scrutiny following the breach.
Despite extensive military campaigns by Somalia’s National Security Forces (NSS) and the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission (AUSSOM), analysts say al-Shabaab has proven adept at adapting to battlefield setbacks.
“They have adjusted to years of pressure and maintained the capability for sporadic yet devastating attacks,” one security analyst noted.
AUSSOM, in a statement condemning the prison attack, reaffirmed its commitment to cooperate with Somali authorities to eliminate the militant threat. The day after the raid, the mission announced what it called a “spectacular success” against al-Shabaab fighters in Awdheegle, in the Lower Shabelle region, claiming to have retaken the town.
“The successes achieved in joint military operations show Somalia is on the verge of achieving the peace and stability its citizens have long desired,” AUSSOM said.
Still, security experts warn that such victories may be temporary. In several regions, including Hiraan, al-Shabaab has reportedly regained territory once reclaimed by African Union and Somali forces. Earlier this year, militants were also reported to have positioned mortar fire within range of Mogadishu, renewing fears of renewed offensives against the capital.
According to the Council on Foreign Relations’ Global Conflict Tracker, al-Shabaab attacks on civilians increased by 41 percent in 2022, underscoring the group’s enduring threat. The report also noted that some fighters have moved northward toward Puntland and Somaliland, where political instability offers opportunities for expansion.
Al-Shabaab continues to mount deadly ambushes, including one on June 6, 2023, that killed 54 Ugandan peacekeepers at a military base. The group has also carried out cross-border incursions into Kenya and Ethiopia, prompting retaliatory measures by both countries’ security forces.
Recent intelligence suggests that al-Shabaab has forged ties with Houthi rebels in Yemen, gaining access to weapons and logistical support in exchange for intelligence and territorial cooperation across the Red Sea.
In response, Egypt, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates have intensified their involvement in Somalia, deploying troops, trainers, and air support to bolster the Somali government.
However, uncertainty remains over long-term international commitment to Somalia’s counterterrorism operations. Reports indicate that the Trump administration may be considering scaling back U.S. engagement in East Africa, raising fears of reduced global pressure on al-Shabaab—three years after President Sheikh Hassan Mohamud declared war on the group.
Despite years of military pressure, al-Shabaab’s latest attack demonstrates that the militant organization remains a formidable and adaptive threat, capable of challenging Somalia’s fragile security gains.
Source:Africa Publicity
