The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that global oil and gas demand could continue growing until mid-century, signaling a slower transition to clean energy than previously projected. The forecast, released in the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2025 on Wednesday, represents a significant shift from earlier expectations that fossil fuel demand would peak this decade.
The Paris-based agency, long regarded as the leading authority on global energy trends, said its latest assessment reflects current government policies rather than climate pledges — and paints a sobering picture for international climate goals. The report concludes that the world is highly unlikely to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the threshold scientists say is critical to avoid the most devastating effects of climate change.
From Peak Oil to Persistent Growth
Under the IEA’s “current policies” scenario — which assumes no major changes in national energy strategies — oil demand is expected to rise from 100 million barrels per day in 2024 to 113 million barrels per day by 2050, an increase of about 13%. Global energy demand overall is forecast to grow by 90 exajoules by 2035, roughly 15% higher than current levels.
The IEA said it reinstated this baseline scenario, used before 2019, to reflect the varying approaches governments are taking toward fossil fuel use. “This outlook acknowledges the political and economic realities driving today’s energy choices,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol told reporters.
The agency’s revised outlook marks a shift away from the sharper climate focus it adopted under the Biden administration, which had projected that global oil consumption would peak this decade. That earlier position drew criticism from oil-producing nations and U.S. conservatives who argued the IEA was underestimating demand.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s energy team, now back in influence, has urged the IEA to “return to realism” and support continued fossil fuel development. Trump’s current Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, recently dismissed the agency’s earlier “peak oil” projections as “nonsensical.” The United States remains the IEA’s largest financial contributor.
OPEC Declares “End of the Peak Oil Myth”
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) welcomed the IEA’s more conservative outlook. In a statement published Wednesday, the cartel said:
“We hope we have passed the peak in the misguided notion of ‘peak oil.’”
OPEC has consistently disputed claims that oil demand is nearing its limit, citing population growth, industrial expansion, and rising energy needs in developing economies.
LNG Boom and Energy Security
The IEA report also highlights a sharp rise in liquefied natural gas (LNG) investments. Projects approved in 2025 are expected to add roughly 300 billion cubic meters (bcm) of new export capacity by 2030 — a 50% increase in global supply. LNG demand could grow from 560 bcm in 2024 to 880 bcm in 2035, and surpass 1,000 bcm by 2050, driven largely by rising power consumption from artificial intelligence and data centers.
Global investment in data infrastructure is projected to reach $580 billion in 2025, the report noted — surpassing annual spending on oil production for the first time.
Falling Short of the 1.5°C Target
The IEA’s scenarios show the world surpassing the 1.5°C limit in all cases, including its most ambitious “net-zero by 2050” pathway. Under that plan, emissions would need to fall drastically within the next decade — requiring a tripling of renewable energy deployment, mass electrification of transport, and near-elimination of new fossil fuel investments.
Environmental groups said the findings underscore the widening gap between global ambitions and political action.
“We need to speed up and scale up,” said Kaisa Kosonen, senior policy adviser at Greenpeace Nordic. “Governments at COP30 must agree on a global response plan to bridge the 1.5°C ambition gap before it’s too late.”
Political Pressures and Energy Realities
The IEA’s shift comes amid renewed political pressure from major energy producers and consumer nations balancing energy security with decarbonization goals. The report also reflects changing geopolitical realities — including the war in Ukraine, which reshaped global energy markets, and rising demand from emerging economies such as India and Southeast Asia.
While the agency emphasized that its scenarios are not predictions but policy-based projections, analysts say the report sends a clear message: the world’s current trajectory remains far off course from the promises made under the 2015 Paris Agreement.
“Without a dramatic policy pivot,” said Dr. Lina Ortega, a climate policy researcher at the London School of Economics, “the fossil fuel era may extend far longer than the planet can afford.”
Source:Africa Publicity
