Kadaga’s Loss and the Busoga Question: A Lubogo Analysis

1. The Fall of a Matriarch

For over two decades, Rebecca Alitwala Kadaga has been the unchallenged political matriarch of Busoga. Her voice resonated not merely as a Member of Parliament or a minister, but as a symbol of Busoga’s visibility on Uganda’s national table. Her loss to Anita Among—by a landslide of 11,680 votes to 902—is not just a personal defeat; it is a shattering moment for the collective political identity of Busoga. Even in her supposed fortress, the region itself, she was edged out by a margin of 498 to 455 votes.

This collapse exposes a painful truth: the Busoga of 2025 is no longer the Busoga of Kadaga. Political loyalties have shifted, new allegiances have formed, and the once unmovable queenpin has been unseated.

2. A Region Divided Against Itself

The election has left Busoga bruised and fractured. Where once there was a unifying figure, there now stand two camps: Team Mama (Kadaga) and Team Mulamu (Among). Instead of forging a united regional identity, Busoga revealed itself as a house divided.

The deeper tragedy is that this division is not ideological—it is personal and factional. It is less about policy differences and more about loyalties, egos, and the contest of personalities. In such a climate, reconciliation within Busoga becomes fragile, and the NRM’s hold in the region becomes precarious.

A divided house cannot stand, and a divided Busoga cannot negotiate with the center.

3. The Museveni Factor: Chess, Not Checkers

President Museveni, the ultimate strategist, emerges strengthened by this outcome. For years, Kadaga stood as a regional counterweight—an influential woman who could mobilize not just Busoga, but also symbolized Uganda’s gendered political progress. Her independence, at times bordering on defiance, meant she was a power he could not fully control.

By contrast, Anita Among is a loyalist. Her victory signals not just the end of Kadaga’s dominance, but the re-centralization of power in the hands of Museveni through trusted lieutenants. Busoga’s bargaining power at the national level has thus shifted from an independent matriarch to a Museveni-aligned operator.

4. The Risk of Political Alienation

Kadaga herself warned before the election:

“If this matter goes to a contest, it will cause you serious problems in my community… you are fighting a bigger community.”

This is more than a lament—it is a prophecy. If the Busoga region perceives Kadaga’s defeat not as democracy, but as a deliberate humiliation of their daughter, the consequences for NRM in 2026 could be dire. Busoga has always been politically restless: fragmented voting patterns, oscillating loyalties, and occasional swings toward opposition. Kadaga was the glue. With that glue now peeled away, the region may bleed into unpredictable political choices.

5. The Death and Rebirth of Regional Leadership

The greatest danger is also the greatest opportunity. Kadaga’s exit creates a vacuum—one that could either be filled by fresh, visionary leadership or by deeper chaos. Busoga must now confront the question: does it live in the nostalgia of Mama Kadaga, or does it rise with new voices?

For some, her fall is a tragedy; for others, it is an overdue reset. The region’s young leaders may seize this as a chance to re-invent Busoga’s political destiny beyond one woman’s shadow. Yet, in the short term, the loss destabilizes Busoga’s bargaining power within the NRM and weakens its coherence.

6. Kadaga’s Political Afterlife

This defeat does not bury Kadaga; it transforms her. She now stands at a crossroads:

Remain in NRM and risk irrelevance,

Exit the party and galvanize Busoga into a protest bloc, or

Rebrand herself as a stateswoman, working outside partisan trenches.

Her next move will either heal Busoga’s wounds or deepen them. In politics, as in life, sometimes defeat is not an end but the beginning of reinvention.

Conclusion: The Busoga Crossroads

Kadaga’s loss is more than a tally of votes. It is a mirror held up to Busoga, reflecting its divisions, its vulnerabilities, and its unsteady place in Uganda’s national chessboard. The region now faces a profound question:

Will Busoga lament the dethronement of its queen and sink into bitterness?

Or will it rise from her shadow, forge unity, and demand a new seat at the national table?

Whatever the answer, the political soul of Busoga has been shaken, and 2026 may reveal whether this was the twilight of a matriarch—or the dawn of a new order.