By: Samuel Shay, Israel – Saudi Aribia business forum, Israel
News of warming ties between historic adversaries Israel and Saudi Arabia has prompted speculation about the broader implications should a formal bilateral peace agreement come to fruition. While negotiations are still ongoing, an Israeli-Saudi reconciliation could provide momentum for Israel to normalize relations with other Arab states, including Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members. This shifting landscape could displace the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as the central issue in the region. Experts envision opportunities to resolve ongoing conflicts, stabilize war-torn nations, and unlock economic potential across the Middle East with other Arab and Muslim-majority states, including:
Gulf Cooperation Council members: United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman
Pakistan
Malaysia
Indonesia
Iraq
North African nations: Tunisia, Algeria, Lydia
This shifting landscape could displace the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as the central issue in the region. Experts envision opportunities to resolve ongoing conflicts, stabilize war-torn nations like Syria and Lebanon, and unlock economic potential across the Middle East.
An Israeli-Saudi peace would substantively shift geopolitical incentives for other Sunni Arab nations like the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman. These countries share many of Saudi Arabia’s strategic priorities regarding countering Iranian influence in the region. They also stand to benefit economically and technologically from ties with Israel’s thriving tech and innovation sector. This could lead more GCC states to follow Saudi Arabia’s lead in normalizing relations with Israel, even absent a final resolution for Palestinian statehood.
The consensus around Israel’s integration with Arab nations may also sway countries like Indonesia, Pakistan, Malaysia and others. These Muslim-majority nations have no formal ties with Israel primarily due to objections over Israel’s policies towards Palestinians. However, as Arab nations increasingly prioritize economic and security cooperation with Israel, it could remove the barrier for non-Arab Muslim states to establish relations as well.
Iraq and North African countries like Tunisia, Lydia and Algeria may also be compelled to re-evaluate their historical rejection of Israel, given shifting regional attitudes. This is especially true for the many Middle Eastern nations seeking to diversify their economies beyond natural resources. Israeli innovation and technology would offer an appealing model for growth.
For war-torn nations like Syria and Lebanon, integrating with the Israeli and Saudi economies could provide vital lifelines for reconstruction and redevelopment. While complicated ethno-religious divisions would remain, the incentive of inclusive prosperity may help steer these nations away from extremism and towards moderation and stability.
In essence, an “Arab NATO” security architecture centered around Saudi Arabia and Israel has the potential to displace the Palestinian issue as the prime obstacle to Middle East peace. By empowering moderate Sunni Arab states and isolating extremist actors like Iran, this evolving alignment could create space for resolving long-simmering conflicts, rehabilitating fragile states, and unlocking massive economic potential across the region. An Israel-Saudi peace agreement may be the key to turning this vision into reality.
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